Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.261605 0.295169 0.331541 0.373910 0.421943 0.474744 0.537241
2025-11-02 0.201081 0.243354 0.292573 0.354209 0.429470 0.518563 0.632305
2025-11-09 0.156452 0.201448 0.257281 0.331856 0.429187 0.552354 0.720764
2025-11-16 0.127858 0.174219 0.235196 0.321626 0.441592 0.603111 0.838589
2025-11-23 0.105757 0.151767 0.215602 0.311175 0.451610 0.651907 0.961961
2025-11-30 0.092869 0.139882 0.208454 0.316544 0.484153 0.736638 1.150465
2025-12-07 0.078161 0.123013 0.191472 0.304576 0.488824 0.780680 1.284971
2025-12-14 0.067636 0.110901 0.179809 0.298790 0.501833 0.839116 1.451889
2025-12-21 0.059016 0.100533 0.169330 0.293131 0.513825 0.897226 1.627659
2025-12-28 0.053983 0.095381 0.166638 0.300070 0.548166 0.998280 1.896330
2026-01-04 0.048223 0.088129 0.159275 0.297505 0.564805 1.069800 2.121908
2026-01-11 0.043929 0.082908 0.154779 0.299451 0.589959 1.160667 2.400558
2026-01-18 0.040613 0.079220 0.152899 0.306705 0.627799 1.284589 2.774907
2026-01-25 0.035717 0.071809 0.142906 0.296388 0.628535 1.333859 3.000395
2026-02-01 0.031051 0.064234 0.131583 0.281663 0.617717 1.357213 3.173285
2026-02-08 0.027838 0.059226 0.124837 0.275707 0.625140 1.421776 3.454963
2026-02-15 0.024939 0.054498 0.118049 0.268643 0.628943 1.478812 3.730019
2026-02-22 0.023406 0.052554 0.117037 0.274584 0.664196 1.615759 4.234281
2026-03-01 0.020929 0.048154 0.109953 0.265173 0.660706 1.657756 4.498391
2026-03-08 0.019079 0.044965 0.105233 0.260797 0.669140 1.731264 4.863667
2026-03-15 0.017428 0.042035 0.100742 0.256325 0.676610 1.803553 5.240717
2026-03-22 0.016572 0.040925 0.100493 0.262680 0.713902 1.962245 5.904010
2026-03-29 0.015342 0.038725 0.097259 0.260672 0.727938 2.058930 6.400153